Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Al-Fateh welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al Fateh club stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fateh haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Fateh's home record at Al Fateh club stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ettifaq haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 1.20 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Fateh have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 10 past contests while Al-Ettifaq have managed just 2 wins.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2026, ended 3–4 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Fateh and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 62% versus Al-Ettifaq 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 44% | Al-Ettifaq 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.48 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.971 / defence 0.969 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.056 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 34 Al-Fateh games / 34 Al-Ettifaq games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ettifaq 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 60% | Al-Ettifaq 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Fateh 1.48 / Al-Ettifaq 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.971 / def 0.969 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.056 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Al-Ettifaq xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq is scheduled to kick off at 15:45 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 38% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Fateh 7W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.97x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
38%
2.61
26%
3.83
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.90
1.42
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
8%
12.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.42 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 9W 10D 15L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. Al-Fateh haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 14W 8D 12L from 34 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. Al-Ettifaq haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.09 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 7W 2D 8L from 17 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.50 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Pre-Season
Al-Ettifaq
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 9W 10D 15L in their last 34 games (1.09 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 14W 8D 12L in their last 34 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.47 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 19 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 7, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 4-3 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 65%, Al-Ettifaq 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Fateh) and 59% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al-Fateh's games and 53% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Al-Fateh's matches and 59% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.