Al Kholood 0-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fateh make the trip to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to face Al Kholood in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Kholood's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Kholood have posted 1W 3D 6L at Al-Hazem Club Stadium — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Al-Fateh have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Al-Fateh away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Al Kholood against 0.90 for Al-Fateh. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al Kholood 2W, Al-Fateh 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2026, ended 5–2 with Al Kholood winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Kholood — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Kholood 55% and Al-Fateh 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 61% | Al-Fateh 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.09 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.675 / defence 1.160 | Al-Fateh attack 0.756 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.399. Al Kholood's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Al Kholood games / 67 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 32% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Fateh 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Kholood 40% | Al-Fateh 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 32% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Kholood 1.09 / Al-Fateh 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.675 / def 1.160 | Al-Fateh attack 0.756 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al-Fateh xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 21 May 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh?
Al Kholood 0 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 32% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Fateh?
Record (3 meetings): Al Kholood 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Fateh in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Kholood's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.76x) against Al Kholood's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
32%
3.17
30%
3.30
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.32
1.23
Al-Fateh xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.23 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Kholood come into this having played 67 games, going 21W 9D 37L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.12 PPG from 67 outings (20W 15D 32L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Al Kholood against 1.12 for Al-Fateh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Kholood's home form reads 11W 5D 17L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 0.79 points per game from 33 outings (6W 8D 19L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Kholood are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.31 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 66%.
Last 67 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 21W 9D 37L in their last 67 games (1.07 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 20W 15D 32L in their last 67 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Kholood's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.15 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Kholood won 2-5 on 20 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Kholood have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
2
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Fateh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al Kholood 0-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Fateh?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 52%, Al-Fateh 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al Kholood) and 48% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 58% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al Kholood's recent games and 48% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Kholood's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 34, as Al Kholood and Al-Fateh drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.09 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Kholood fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.68 / defence 1.16 against Al-Fateh attack 0.76 / defence 1.06, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 32% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 38%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 61%, Al-Fateh 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.07 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.