Al Kholood 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Al Kholood welcome Al-Ittihad FC to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 17:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.41 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.091 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.233. Data: 0 Al Kholood games / 34 Al-Ittihad FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 34% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 17:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 34% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Kholood 1.41 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.091 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al-Ittihad FC xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:10 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Kholood 0 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 34% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (0.85) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
34%
2.96
26%
3.78
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.96
1.55
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
7%
13.90
10%
10.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.55 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Pre-Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Kholood
1
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 0-0 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Kholood 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Kholood 0-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.41 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Kholood fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.09, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 34% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 40%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.