Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Raed.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Nassr and Al-Raed meet at Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 22 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Nassr's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Nassr haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Nassr's home record at Al Awal Park at King Saud University: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Raed (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Raed haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Raed have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Nassr. A 1.30 PPG lead over Al-Raed (2.60 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Nassr register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Al-Raed in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Al-Nassr have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with Al-Raed managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2024, ended 1–3 with Al-Raed winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 65%.
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 68% and Al-Raed 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 82% | Al-Raed 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.99 xG and Al-Raed 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.344 / defence 1.013 | Al-Raed attack 0.992 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.288. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Al-Nassr games / 34 Al-Raed games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 53% | Draw 23% | Al-Raed 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Raed 4.17. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 90% | Al-Raed 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 53% | Draw 23% | Al-Raed 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Nassr 1.99 / Al-Raed 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.344 / def 1.013 | Al-Raed attack 0.992 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al-Raed xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 22 August 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Al-Nassr 1 - 1 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 53% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Raed?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Nassr 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Raed in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (0.99x) against Al-Nassr's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.27
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.29
1.29
Al-Raed xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
3%
30.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.29 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.41 PPG on a 26W 4D 4L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. Al-Nassr haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Raed's form line: 9W 10D 15L from 34 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D. Al-Raed haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.32 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Raed.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.29 PPG from 17 outings (12W 3D 2L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 4W 6D 7L from 17 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.94 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.21 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Pre-Season
Al-Raed
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 26W 4D 4L in their last 34 games (2.41 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 9W 10D 15L in their last 34 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.29 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 4-0 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Raed have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Raed?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Raed see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 71%, Al-Raed 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Al-Nassr and 47% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Nassr's games and 59% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Al-Nassr's matches and 47% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr and Al-Raed share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr and Al-Raed finished level at 1-1 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.99 xG and Al-Raed 1.29 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Nassr fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.34 / defence 1.01 against Al-Raed attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 53% | Draw 23% | Al-Raed 24%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 82%, Al-Raed 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.