Al Shabab 0-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Shabab Club Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al Shabab haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al Shabab's home record at Al-Shabab Club Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ettifaq haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Al Shabab 1W, Al-Ettifaq 2W, 3D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 47% versus Al-Ettifaq 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 47% | Al-Ettifaq 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.48 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.144 / defence 1.039 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.061 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.215. Data: 34 Al Shabab games / 34 Al-Ettifaq games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 40% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ettifaq 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al Shabab 50% | Al-Ettifaq 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 40% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Shabab 1.48 / Al-Ettifaq 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.144 / def 1.039 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.061 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Al-Ettifaq xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Shabab 0 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 40% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (6 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 3 | Al-Ettifaq 2W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.14x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.06x) against Al Shabab's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
40%
2.48
26%
3.86
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.82
1.34
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
8%
13.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.34 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Shabab come into this having played 34 games, going 12W 8D 14L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. Al Shabab haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.41 PPG from 34 outings (12W 12D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. Al-Ettifaq haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Al Shabab against 1.41 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Shabab's home form reads 8W 3D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.35 points per game from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.26 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Al-Ettifaq in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Pre-Season
Al-Ettifaq
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 12W 8D 14L in their last 34 games (1.29 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 12W 12D 10L in their last 34 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.59 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 3-0 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
5
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 59%, Al-Ettifaq 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al Shabab) and 29% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 41%; Al-Ettifaq in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 29% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al Shabab's recent games and 29% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Shabab 0-1 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.48 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.34 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Shabab fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.14 / defence 1.04 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.06 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 40% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 34%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 47%, Al-Ettifaq 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.29 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.