Al Taawon 1-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Taawon (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taawon face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Fayha meet at Al Taawon Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 22 August 2024 at 17:10 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Taawon haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al Taawon at Al Taawon Club Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al-Fayha (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fayha haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Al Taawon's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al Taawon, 0 for Al-Fayha and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 53% versus Al-Fayha 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 44% | Al-Fayha 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.54 xG and Al-Fayha 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.976 / defence 0.930 | Al-Fayha attack 1.012 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.323. Data: 34 Al Taawon games / 34 Al-Fayha games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 42% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fayha 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 50% | Al-Fayha 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Aug 2024, 17:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 42% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Taawon 1.54 / Al-Fayha 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.976 / def 0.930 | Al-Fayha attack 1.012 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al-Fayha xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 17:10 on Thursday 22 August 2024 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Al Taawon 1 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 42% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fayha?
Record (5 meetings): Al Taawon 2W | Draws 3 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fayha in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.98x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (1.01x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
42%
2.35
28%
3.51
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.79
1.24
Al-Fayha xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
6%
16.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.24 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 34 games, going 16W 11D 7L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W. Al Taawon haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.29 PPG from 34 outings (11W 11D 12L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five. Al-Fayha haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 9W 3D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 1.47 points per game from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.29 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha in 65%.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Pre-Season
Al-Fayha
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 16W 11D 7L in their last 34 games (1.74 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 11D 12L in their last 34 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.76 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 25 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 4-1 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Taawon
5
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2026, when Al Taawon 0-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Fayha?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 53% for Al Taawon, 82% for Al-Fayha — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al Taawon and 71% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al Taawon's games and 82% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Taawon's matches and 71% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al-Fayha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Fayha 1-0 at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.54 xG and Al-Fayha 1.24 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fayha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Al-Fayha attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 42% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 29%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 44%, Al-Fayha 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.