Al Riyadh 3-1 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Riyadh at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Riyadh versus Al Kholood in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Thursday 29 August 2024 at 16:55 UTC.
Current Form
Al Riyadh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Riyadh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Riyadh at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Kholood have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Pro League outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Al Kholood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Al Riyadh's favour (1.10 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.48 xG and Al Kholood 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.960 / defence 0.987 | Al Kholood attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.252. Data: 35 Al Riyadh games / 1 Al Kholood games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 47% | Draw 26% | Al Kholood 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Al Kholood 3.70. Al Riyadh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Riyadh are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Aug 2024, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 47% | Draw 26% | Al Kholood 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Riyadh 1.48 / Al Kholood 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.960 / def 0.987 | Al Kholood attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Al Kholood xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood kicked off at 16:55 on Thursday 29 August 2024 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood?
Al Riyadh 3 - 1 Al Kholood.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 47% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Kholood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Kholood in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Al Kholood (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Riyadh's attack rating (0.96) and Al Kholood's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Kholood's attack (0.85x) against Al Riyadh's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.84
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.54
1.05
Al Kholood xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
6%
16.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.05 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Riyadh come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Al Riyadh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Kholood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Riyadh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Al Riyadh are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al Riyadh's scoring rate against Al Kholood's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al Riyadh have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al Kholood in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Early Season
Al Kholood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 19 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al Riyadh go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al Riyadh
0
Draws
1
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Kholood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 3, Al Kholood have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2026, when Al Kholood 0-2 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al Kholood?
Al Riyadh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al Kholood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 0% of Al Kholood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 0% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Riyadh cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Al Kholood 3-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.48 xG and Al Kholood 1.05 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Riyadh beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Al Kholood attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 47% | Draw 26% | Al Kholood 27%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 100%, Al Kholood 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Riyadh arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Riyadh conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Kholood scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.