Al Khaleej Saihat 3-1 Al Najma – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al Najma.

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Analysis

Al Najma make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al Khaleej Saihat's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.

Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al Khaleej Saihat are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al Najma have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Najma's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 0.60 for Al Najma. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Al Khaleej Saihat, 0 for Al Najma and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Jan 2026, ended Al Khaleej Saihat 2–2 Al Najma — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Al Najma half-time and goal-timing data (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 66% and Al Najma 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Khaleej Saihat 66% | Al Najma 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 2.14 xG and Al Najma 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.944 / defence 1.138 | Al Najma attack 0.704 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.382. Al Najma's defence rating of 1.459 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Khaleej Saihat's projected output up. Al Najma's attack rating of 0.704 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 62 games and Al Najma's last 29.

Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 61% | Draw 20% | Al Najma 19%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 1.64 | Draw 4.88 | Al Najma 5.36. The model has a clear lean to Al Khaleej Saihat (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Khaleej Saihat are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 home games and Al Najma's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% (last 10 home games) | Al Najma 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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