Al-Hazm 0-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 80% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Hazm's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Hazm at home: 2W 1D 5L from their last 8 home games — 0.88 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 3.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 4W 1D 3L from their last 8 away outings — 1.62 PPG. They are averaging 2.62 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from their last 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al-Hazm's last 8 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 8 away games) — Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ahli Jeddah edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2023, ended Al-Hazm 1–3 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a Al-Ahli Jeddah win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Hazm — key trading statistics (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 71% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 59% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.37 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.895 / defence 1.762 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.568 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.358. Al-Ahli Jeddah have an above-average attack rating of 1.568, which lifts their away xG to 3.75. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.762 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 17 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 17.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 9% | Draw 11% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 80%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 11.01 | Draw 8.98 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (80%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 89% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 5.12. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 89% — a total xG of 5.12 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.37 / 3.75) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 80% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 5.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 89% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hazm's last 8 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 8 away games) averaging 4.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 62% (last 8 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 62% (last 8 away games).

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