Al-Nassr 3-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Al-Nassr welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al Awal Park at King Saud University. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 8W 1D 1L at Al Awal Park at King Saud University — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Al-Nassr have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Nassr, 2 for Al-Ettifaq and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 46% versus Al-Ettifaq 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 67% | Al-Ettifaq 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.56 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.353 / defence 0.865 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.706 / defence 0.747. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.358. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.747 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Al-Nassr games / 47 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ettifaq 5.26. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 50% | Al-Ettifaq 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Friday 22 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Nassr 1.56 / Al-Ettifaq 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.353 / def 0.865 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.706 / def 0.747 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al-Ettifaq xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 22 December 2023 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr 3 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 54% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Nassr 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 2W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.35x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.71
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.39
0.83
Al-Ettifaq xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
4%
24.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.83 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 32W 8D 6L from 46 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 17L across 46 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 18W 4D 1L from 23 games — 2.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 6W 6D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.02 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 32W 8D 6L in their last 46 games (2.26 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 13D 17L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.52 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Al-Nassr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Nassr
3
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 4, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 52%, Al-Ettifaq 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Al-Nassr) and 35% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 30%; Al-Ettifaq in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 30% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 35% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ettifaq 3-1 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.56 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.83 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.35 / defence 0.86 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.71 / defence 0.75, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 19%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 67%, Al-Ettifaq 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.