Al Wehda Club 3-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Al Riyadh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Riyadh make the trip to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to face Al Wehda Club in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Wehda Club's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al Wehda Club are significantly better at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Riyadh have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Riyadh have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Riyadh in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Wehda Club lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Al Riyadh winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al Wehda Club half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Al Riyadh half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 59% versus Al Riyadh 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 71% | Al Riyadh 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 2.52 xG and Al Riyadh 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.182 / defence 1.116 | Al Riyadh attack 0.866 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.387. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.399 — this is suppressing Al Wehda Club's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Al Wehda Club games / 17 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 63% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 19%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | Al Riyadh 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al Wehda Club (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.52 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wehda Club are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.86 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 60% | Al Riyadh 62% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 63% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 68% | xG Al Wehda Club 2.52 / Al Riyadh 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 1.182 / def 1.116 | Al Riyadh attack 0.866 / def 1.399 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Al Riyadh xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 24 December 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Riyadh?
Al Wehda Club 3 - 1 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 63% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Riyadh?
Record (1 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 0 | Al Riyadh 1W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Riyadh in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Wehda Club's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Al Riyadh's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.52. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (0.87x) against Al Wehda Club's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
63%
1.60
19%
5.31
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
3.86
1.34
Al Riyadh xG
1.60
63%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
8%
12.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
1%
66.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.34 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al Riyadh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Al Wehda Club have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 7W 1D 9L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Riyadh's form line: 4W 4D 9L from 17 games, 0.94 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Al Wehda Club against 0.94 for Al Riyadh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Wehda Club have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L).
On the road, Al Riyadh have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wehda Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 0.88 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 7W 1D 9L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.62 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Wehda Club
1
Draws
2
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Riyadh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 1, Al Riyadh have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2025, when Al Riyadh 1-0 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al Riyadh?
Al Riyadh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 62%, Al Riyadh 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al Wehda Club and 88% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al Wehda Club's games and 62% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 88% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wehda Club cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Al Riyadh 3-1 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 2.52 xG and Al Riyadh 1.34 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.18 / defence 1.12 against Al Riyadh attack 0.87 / defence 1.40, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 63% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 19%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 71%, Al Riyadh 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 1.29 PPG, Al Riyadh 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wehda Club win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.