Al-Fayha 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Fayha welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Qadisiyah FC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Fayha's games and 80% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's (from Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Fayha, 2 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2026, ended Al-Fayha 0–5 Al-Qadisiyah FC — a Al-Qadisiyah FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 45% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 45% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Fayha surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Al-Qadisiyah FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.46 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.039 / defence 0.940 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.441 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.453. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.441, which lifts their away xG to 1.97. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 65 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 65.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 28% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.56 | Draw 4.32 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.05. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.46 / 1.97) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 32 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 28% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Al-Fayha 1.46 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.039 / def 0.940 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.441 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC FAQs
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Fayha 1 - 2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 32) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 28% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 1.04x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Fayha's last 65 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
28%
3.56
23%
4.32
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.43
1.97
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
3.56
28%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
14%
7.16
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
4%
25.48
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.97 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 65 games, going 18W 20D 27L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.09 PPG from 65 outings (41W 13D 11L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 11W 12D 9L across their last 32 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.84 points per game from their last 32 away games (18W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.95 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Current Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
Al-Fayha (Home) vs Al-Qadisiyah FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fayha
Current Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 18W 20D 27L in their last 65 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 41W 13D 11L in their last 65 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.41 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Jan 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won Al-Qadisiyah FC 5-0 Al-Fayha.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
0
Draws
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Al-Fayha 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 44%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Al-Fayha) and 59% (Al-Qadisiyah FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 31%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 59% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 59% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 75% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al-Fayha 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Fayha 1-2 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.46 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.97 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.44 / defence 0.93, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 28% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 49%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 45%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.