Al Wehda Club 0-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Al Wehda Club welcome Al-Fayha to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 31 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Wehda Club's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al Wehda Club carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Wehda Club register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Fayha in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Wehda Club, 1 for Al-Fayha and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Al-Fayha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Wehda Club trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al-Fayha trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 45% versus Al-Fayha 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 38% | Al-Fayha 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.08 xG and Al-Fayha 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.770 / defence 1.422 | Al-Fayha attack 0.840 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.309. Al Wehda Club's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Al Wehda Club games / 59 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 26% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fayha 2.08. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Wehda Club (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 60% | Al-Fayha 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 26% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.08 / Al-Fayha 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.770 / def 1.422 | Al-Fayha attack 0.840 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Al-Fayha xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 31 May 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Al Wehda Club 0 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 26% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha?
Record (1 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Wehda Club's attack rating (0.77) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
26%
3.86
26%
3.89
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.64
1.56
Al-Fayha xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
5%
18.42
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.56 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Wehda Club come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 8D 13L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.03 PPG from 29 outings (7W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Wehda Club on 1.10 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Wehda Club's home form reads 4W 5D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.93 points per game from 14 outings (3W 4D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wehda Club are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.03 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Current Season
Al-Fayha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 8W 8D 13L in their last 29 games (1.10 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 7W 9D 13L in their last 29 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.21 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Wehda Club
3
Draws
2
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Al-Fayha 0-0 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 50%, Al-Fayha 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al Wehda Club) and 50% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Fayha in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 57% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 50% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fayha edge out Al Wehda Club 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Wehda Club 0-1 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.08 xG and Al-Fayha 1.56 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Wehda Club fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.77 / defence 1.42 against Al-Fayha attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 26% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 48%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 38%, Al-Fayha 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 1.10 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.