Al-Fateh 1-2 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Riyadh at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh meet at Al Fateh Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 28 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh Club Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Riyadh's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Riyadh have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Riyadh arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al Riyadh in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Fateh, 0 for Al Riyadh and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Riyadh half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 73% and Al Riyadh 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 62% | Al Riyadh 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.40 xG and Al Riyadh 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.942 / defence 1.217 | Al Riyadh attack 1.035 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.245. Data: 45 Al-Fateh games / 45 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 34% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Al Riyadh 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Riyadh at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al Riyadh 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 34% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Fateh 1.40 / Al Riyadh 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.942 / def 1.217 | Al Riyadh attack 1.035 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Al Riyadh xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 28 November 2024 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Fateh 1 - 2 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 34% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 2 | Al Riyadh 0W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Al Riyadh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.94x the league average against Al Riyadh's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (1.03x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
34%
2.93
24%
4.11
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.97
1.57
Al Riyadh xG
2.93
34%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
7%
14.07
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.57 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fateh come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 11D 21L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Riyadh sit at 1.11 PPG from 45 outings (12W 14D 19L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.11 for Al Riyadh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fateh's home form reads 7W 6D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Riyadh have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.02 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 13W 11D 21L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 12W 14D 19L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.23 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
3
Draws
2
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al Riyadh have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Riyadh 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh?
Al Riyadh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Al-Fateh, 64% for Al Riyadh — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Fateh) and 64% (Al Riyadh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Al-Fateh's games and 64% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al-Fateh's matches and 64% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al-Fateh 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Al-Fateh 1-2 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.40 xG and Al Riyadh 1.57 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.94 / defence 1.22 against Al Riyadh attack 1.03 / defence 1.05, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 34% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 42%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 62%, Al Riyadh 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.11 PPG, Al Riyadh 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Riyadh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.