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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Al Kholood make the trip to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to face Al Okhdood in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Thursday 28 November 2024 at 15:05 UTC.

Form

Al Okhdood (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Al Kholood have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Kholood's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in Pro League this season (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Al Okhdood, 0.70 for Al Kholood — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Trading & In-Play

Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Al Kholood — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 46% versus Al Kholood 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 46% | Al Kholood 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.38 xG and Al Kholood 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.933 / defence 0.922 | Al Kholood attack 0.767 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.233. Data: 45 Al Okhdood games / 11 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 49% | Draw 28% | Al Kholood 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Al Kholood 4.17. Al Okhdood hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Okhdood are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Okhdood 50% | Al Kholood 67%.

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