Al-Ettifaq 0-4 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Al-Ittihad FC.

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Analysis

Al-Ittihad FC make the trip to EGO Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:25 UTC.

Form

Al-Ettifaq (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 3W 2D 5L at EGO Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Al-Ittihad FC are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Al-Ettifaq 1W, Al-Ittihad FC 3W, 2D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 5–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 44% versus Al-Ittihad FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 36% | Al-Ittihad FC 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.85 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.716 / defence 1.204 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.087 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.209. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Al-Ettifaq games / 45 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 20% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 60% BTTS from recent games.

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