Al-Raed 0-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Al Taawon travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024, 13:20 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Raed's home record at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al Taawon — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al-Raed) versus 1.20 (Al Taawon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al Taawon have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Al-Raed.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Taawon have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Al-Raed in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al Taawon in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 53% versus Al Taawon 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 56% | Al Taawon 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.33 xG and Al Taawon 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 1.028 / defence 1.104 | Al Taawon attack 0.753 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.209. Data: 45 Al-Raed games / 45 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 44% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taawon 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 60% | Al Taawon 40%.

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