Al-Fateh 2-0 Al Najma – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Fateh face Al Najma.

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Match Analysis

Al-Fateh host Al Najma at Al Fateh club stadium in Pro League (matchday 33). Kick-off is Thursday 14 May 2026 at 17:55 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Najma — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Najma away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fateh at 0.90 PPG versus Al Najma's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Al-Fateh, 0 for Al Najma and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Jan 2026, ended Al-Fateh 1–1 Al Najma — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al-Fateh trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Al Najma trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 66% and Al Najma 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 47% | Al Najma 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.98 xG and Al Najma 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.952 / defence 1.007 | Al Najma attack 0.615 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.436. Al Najma's defence rating of 1.384 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fateh's projected output up. Al Najma's attack rating of 0.615 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 66 games and Al Najma's last 32.

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 62% | Draw 23% | Al Najma 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.61 | Draw 4.39 | Al Najma 6.57. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (62%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Al Najma's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Najma 40% (last 10 away games).

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