Al-Fateh 2-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Al Fateh Club Stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Hazm in Pro League (matchday 33). Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al-Fateh have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Hazm (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Al-Hazm's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Al-Fateh. A 0.50 PPG lead over Al-Hazm (1.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al-Fateh, 2 for Al-Hazm and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2023, ended Al-Fateh 0–2 Al-Hazm — a Al-Hazm win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 78% and Al-Hazm 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 66% | Al-Hazm 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.05 xG and Al-Hazm 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.079 / defence 1.107 | Al-Hazm attack 0.813 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.366. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.318 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fateh's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 62 games and Al-Hazm's last 32.

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 55% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.83 | Draw 4.10 | Al-Hazm 4.77. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.05 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hazm 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights