Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (76%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al Taee.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to Al-Shabab Club Stadium to face Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Thursday 23 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
Al Taee have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al Taee have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Al-Hilal Saudi FC's favour (2.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Al Taee — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Al Taee — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% versus Al Taee 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al Taee 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.63 xG and Al Taee 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.559 / defence 0.752 | Al Taee attack 0.742 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.366. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.559 — their λ of 2.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 62 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76% | Draw 17% | Al Taee 7%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.32 | Draw 5.88 | Al Taee 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (76%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al Taee 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76% | Draw 17% | Al Taee 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.63 / Al Taee 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.559 / def 0.752 | Al Taee attack 0.742 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.63
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Al Taee xG
51%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 23 May 2024 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 1 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 76% chance of winning, Al Taee a 7% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W | Draws 1 | Al Taee 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al Taee (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.56) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.74x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
76%
1.31
17%
6.03
7%
13.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.63
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.39
0.76
Al Taee xG
1.31
76%
Home win
6.03
17%
Draw
13.61
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
7%
13.86
Win to Nil
35%
2.82
1%
188.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 2.63 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.76 for Al Taee, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.40 PPG on a 46W 11D 5L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Al Taee's form line: 18W 11D 33L from 62 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.35 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taee.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.48 PPG from 31 outings (24W 5D 2L).
On the road, Al Taee have gone 5W 6D 20L from 31 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.42 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.19 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
Al Taee
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 46W 11D 5L in their last 62 games (2.40 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 18W 11D 33L in their last 62 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.48 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Al Taee in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 on 11 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
0
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, Al Taee have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2024, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%, Al Taee 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 52% (Al Taee). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Al Taee in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 52% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 52% of Al Taee's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Taee 3-1 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.63 xG and Al Taee 0.76 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.56 / defence 0.75 against Al Taee attack 0.74 / defence 1.17, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76% | Draw 17% | Al Taee 7%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%, Al Taee 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taee's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Al Taee (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.