Abha 2-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Al Khaleej Saihat travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Abha. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 May 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Abha — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Abha's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Khaleej Saihat away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Abha at 1.10 PPG versus Al Khaleej Saihat's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Abha, 2 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Abha in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 56% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 68% | Al Khaleej Saihat 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 0.98 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.917 / defence 1.148 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.793 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.366. Al Khaleej Saihat's defence strength of 0.741 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Abha games / 62 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 27% | Draw 33% | Al Khaleej Saihat 40%. Fair-value odds: Abha 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Khaleej Saihat are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Abha 50% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 27% | Draw 33% | Al Khaleej Saihat 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Abha 0.98 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.917 / def 1.148 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.793 / def 0.741 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Abha vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 23 May 2024 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Abha 2 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Abha vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Abha vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 27% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Abha and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (3 meetings): Abha 1W | Draws 0 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2W.
What form are Abha and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Abha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Abha's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
27%
3.73
33%
3.03
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Abha xG
Total xG
2.22
1.25
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
15%
6.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.5 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Abha and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Abha and 1.25 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Abha come into this having played 62 games, going 18W 8D 36L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.10 PPG from 62 outings (18W 14D 30L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.00 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Abha's home form reads 15W 6D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.06 points per game from 31 outings (9W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Abha are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.19 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.03 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Current Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 18W 8D 36L in their last 62 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 18W 14D 30L in their last 62 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Abha's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.65 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Abha and Al Khaleej Saihat runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Abha's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Abha
0
Draws
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 4 meetings on record, Abha have won 2, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2024, when Abha 2-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Abha see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 61%, Al Khaleej Saihat 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Abha) and 32% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Abha's recent matches and 36% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Abha vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Abha's recent games and 32% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Abha defy the odds to beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 0.98 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.25 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Abha beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.92 / defence 1.15 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.79 / defence 0.74, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 27% | Draw 33% | Al Khaleej Saihat 40%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Abha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 68%, Al Khaleej Saihat 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.00 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Abha win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.