Al Shabab 3-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Shabab face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Shabab welcome Al-Fateh to Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 34). Kick-off is Monday 27 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al Shabab — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Fateh stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Shabab at 1.60 PPG versus Al-Fateh's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Fateh 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2023, ended Al Shabab 1–1 Al-Fateh — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 49% versus Al-Fateh 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 56% | Al-Fateh 64%). Note also that Al-Fateh surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Al Shabab recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.10 xG and Al-Fateh 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.179 / defence 0.971 | Al-Fateh attack 1.068 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.331. Al-Fateh's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Shabab's projected output up. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 63 games and Al-Fateh's last 63.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 52% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 23%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.92 | Draw 4.07 | Al-Fateh 4.30. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.10 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 34 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 52% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Al Shabab 2.10 / Al-Fateh 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.179 / def 0.971 | Al-Fateh attack 1.068 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Al-Fateh xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh FAQs
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 27 May 2024 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Al Shabab 3 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 34) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 52% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Fateh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.18x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Shabab's last 63 games and Al-Fateh's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
52%
1.92
25%
4.07
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.48
1.38
Al-Fateh xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
12%
8.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
3%
35.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.38 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 28W 13D 22L from 63 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 25L across 63 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Shabab on 1.54 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 17W 5D 9L from their last 31 home games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 13W 5D 13L across their last 31 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.63 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 63%.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
Al Shabab (Home) vs Al-Fateh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Shabab
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh Form FAQs
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 28W 13D 22L in their last 63 games (1.54 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 25W 13D 25L in their last 63 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.81 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from January 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 22 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Dec 2022, when Al-Fateh won Al-Fateh 4-1 Al Shabab.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al Shabab
4
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Shabab have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Fateh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 October 2026: Al-Fateh 1-3 Al Shabab.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 42%, Al-Fateh 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Al Shabab and 81% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Shabab and Al-Fateh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Al Shabab's games and 71% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al Shabab's matches and 81% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Fateh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 84% of Al-Fateh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Fateh 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Fateh 3-2 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 2.10 xG and Al-Fateh 1.38 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.18 / defence 0.97 against Al-Fateh attack 1.07 / defence 1.21, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 52% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 23%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 56%, Al-Fateh 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.54 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.