Al-Ittihad FC 4-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC and Damac meet at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 23 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Damac's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Al-Ittihad FC, 0.90 for Damac — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 2W, Damac 1W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Damac winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Damac — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 47% versus Damac 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 61% | Damac 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.41 xG and Damac 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.036 / defence 1.370 | Damac attack 0.780 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.366. Data: 62 Al-Ittihad FC games / 62 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 35% | Draw 29% | Damac 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Damac 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Damac 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 35% | Draw 29% | Damac 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.41 / Damac 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.036 / def 1.370 | Damac attack 0.780 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Damac (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Damac xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 23 May 2024 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Al-Ittihad FC 4 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 35% chance of winning, Damac a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Damac?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 2W | Draws 2 | Damac 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Damac in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Damac (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.04x the league average against Damac's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.78x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
35%
2.89
29%
3.48
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.87
1.46
Damac xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
8%
12.46
9%
11.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.46 for Damac, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 37W 12D 13L from 62 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 24L across 62 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Damac heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 20W 4D 7L from 31 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 8W 9D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.21 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
Damac
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 37W 12D 13L in their last 62 games (1.98 PPG), while Damac have gone 19W 19D 24L in their last 62 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Damac away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.06 PPG; Damac away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Damac in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Damac have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Damac?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 42%, Damac 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 48% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Damac in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 55% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 48% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Damac in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Damac 4-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.41 xG and Damac 1.46 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.37 against Damac attack 0.78 / defence 0.95, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 35% | Draw 29% | Damac 37%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Ittihad FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 61%, Damac 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.