Al-Ettifaq 1-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Ettifaq Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ettifaq versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Al-Ettifaq at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium this season.
Al-Fayha have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.90 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Ettifaq, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Al-Fayha — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Al-Ettifaq a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 41% versus Al-Fayha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 39% | Al-Fayha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.42 xG and Al-Fayha 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.823 / defence 0.798 | Al-Fayha attack 1.035 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.418. Al-Fayha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ettifaq's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Al-Ettifaq games / 59 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fayha 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Al-Fayha 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Al Ettifaq Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.42 / Al-Fayha 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.823 / def 0.798 | Al-Fayha attack 1.035 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al-Fayha xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 42% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.82) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (1.03x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.63
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.59
1.17
Al-Fayha xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
7%
13.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.17 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 20W 18D 21L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Al-Fayha's form line: 18W 17D 24L from 59 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.20 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.55 PPG from 29 outings (12W 9D 8L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 10W 7D 12L from 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.17 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
Al-Fayha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 20W 18D 21L in their last 59 games (1.32 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 18W 17D 24L in their last 59 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.55 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 11 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
3
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 48%, Al-Fayha 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Al-Ettifaq) and 62% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 69% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 62% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.42 xG and Al-Fayha 1.17 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.82 / defence 0.80 against Al-Fayha attack 1.03 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 30%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 39%, Al-Fayha 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.32 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.