Al Shabab 2-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Raed encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Al-Raed travel to Al-Shabab Club Stadium to take on Al Shabab. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 May 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 5W 1D 4L at Al-Shabab Club Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Raed have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al Shabab, 1 for Al-Raed and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Al-Raed winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 51% versus Al-Raed 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 58% | Al-Raed 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.91 xG and Al-Raed 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.245 / defence 0.995 | Al-Raed attack 1.082 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.414. Data: 59 Al Shabab games / 59 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Raed 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Raed 3.33. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 40% | Al-Raed 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Raed 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Shabab 1.91 / Al-Raed 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.245 / def 0.995 | Al-Raed attack 1.082 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al-Raed xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Raed kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Al Shabab 2 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 46% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Raed?
Record (5 meetings): Al Shabab 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Raed in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.25) and Al-Raed's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
46%
2.15
23%
4.33
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.44
1.52
Al-Raed xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
4%
22.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.52 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 27W 13D 19L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Al-Raed's form line: 17W 14D 28L from 59 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Raed.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 1.83 PPG from 29 outings (16W 5D 8L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 7W 9D 13L from 29 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.34 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Current Season
Al-Raed
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 27W 13D 19L in their last 59 games (1.59 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 17W 14D 28L in their last 59 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Raed away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.83 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Shabab have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2021, when Al Shabab won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al Shabab
1
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 6, Al-Raed have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Raed?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 41%, Al-Raed 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Al Shabab and 66% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Al-Raed in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 62% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al Shabab's matches and 66% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Raed 2-0 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.91 xG and Al-Raed 1.52 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Raed landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.25 / defence 0.99 against Al-Raed attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Raed 30%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 58%, Al-Raed 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Raed's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Shabab (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.