Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Damac to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 2 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Damac away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 0 for Damac and 3 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Damac in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% versus Damac 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% | Damac 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.96 xG and Damac 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.791 / defence 0.718 | Damac attack 0.859 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.399. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 59 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 36% | Draw 34% | Damac 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Damac 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% | Damac 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 2 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 36% | Draw 34% | Damac 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.96 / Damac 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.791 / def 0.718 | Damac attack 0.859 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Damac xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 2 May 2024 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 4 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 36% chance of winning, Damac a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 3 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Damac (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (0.79) and Damac's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
36%
2.81
34%
2.93
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
1.82
0.86
Damac xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.86 for Damac, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 28 games, going 15W 7D 6L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (10W 8D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 8W 4D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 1.23 points per game from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.43 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
Damac
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 15W 7D 6L in their last 28 games (1.86 PPG), while Damac have gone 10W 8D 10L in their last 28 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Damac away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.15 PPG; Damac away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Damac in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Damac specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
0
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, Damac have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Damac see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 31%, Damac 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 46% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Damac in 31%; Al-Ahli Jeddah have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 62% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 46% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Damac 4-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.96 xG and Damac 0.86 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.79 / defence 0.72 against Damac attack 0.86 / defence 0.86, drawn from 28/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 36% | Draw 34% | Damac 30%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%, Damac 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.