Al Taee 0-0 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat make the trip to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to face Al Taee in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Al Taee (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taee have posted 3W 3D 4L at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Al Taee, 1.30 for Al Khaleej Saihat — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Taee lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al Taee half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 51% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 58% | Al Khaleej Saihat 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.05 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.905 / defence 1.152 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.850 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.414. Data: 59 Al Taee games / 59 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 28% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 44%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Al Taee 70% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 28% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Taee 1.05 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.905 / def 1.152 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.850 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Taee 0 - 0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 28% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taee 1W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1W.
What form are Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al Taee (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Taee's attack rating (0.91) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.85x) against Al Taee's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
28%
3.60
28%
3.53
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.43
1.38
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
7%
14.36
15%
6.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.38 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taee's recent record stands at 17W 9D 33L from 59 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Al Khaleej Saihat, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 29L across 59 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Al Taee against 1.12 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Taee have managed 12W 4D 13L from 29 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record stands at 9W 5D 15L across 29 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taee are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.05 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Current Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 17W 9D 33L in their last 59 games (1.02 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 18W 12D 29L in their last 59 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Taee's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.38 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taee won 3-0 on 6 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Taee
2
Draws
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 1, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Al Taee 0-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 52%, Al Khaleej Saihat 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al Taee) and 31% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Al Khaleej Saihat in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al Taee's recent matches and 34% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al Taee's recent games and 31% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Taee's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.05 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.38 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Taee fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al Khaleej Saihat landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.91 / defence 1.15 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.85 / defence 0.80, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 28% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 44%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 58%, Al Khaleej Saihat 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.02 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Taee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.