Al-Fayha 1-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Fayha (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al Taee.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to face Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Thursday 25 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fayha have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season.
Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Taee's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Fayha. A 0.70 PPG lead over Al Taee (1.60 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Al-Fayha, 1 for Al Taee and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Fayha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 55% versus Al Taee 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 55% | Al Taee 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.73 xG and Al Taee 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.933 / defence 1.102 | Al Taee attack 0.753 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.427. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Al-Fayha games / 58 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 49% | Draw 26% | Al Taee 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Al Taee 4.00. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 50% | Al Taee 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 49% | Draw 26% | Al Taee 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Fayha 1.73 / Al Taee 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.933 / def 1.102 | Al Taee attack 0.753 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al Taee xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taee kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 25 April 2024 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taee?
Al-Fayha 1 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 49% chance of winning, Al Taee a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taee?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Fayha 3W | Draws 1 | Al Taee 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taee in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Al Taee (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.93) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.75x) against Al-Fayha's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.88
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.92
1.18
Al Taee xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
4%
22.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.18 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 17W 17D 24L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Al Taee's form line: 17W 9D 32L from 58 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.03 for Al Taee. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.07 PPG from 29 outings (7W 10D 12L).
On the road, Al Taee have gone 5W 5D 19L from 29 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.21 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Current Season
Al Taee
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 17W 17D 24L in their last 58 games (1.17 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 17W 9D 32L in their last 58 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.07 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
1
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 4, Al Taee have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2024, when Al-Fayha 1-0 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Taee?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 41%, Al Taee 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Fayha) and 55% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 45% of games; Al Taee in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 52% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 55% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fayha edge out Al Taee 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Taee 1-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.73 xG and Al Taee 1.18 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taee landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Al Taee attack 0.75 / defence 1.30, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 49% | Draw 26% | Al Taee 25%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 55%, Al Taee 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Taee's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.17 PPG, Al Taee 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.