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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al-Ittihad FC at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.20 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ahli Jeddah register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 3 for Al-Ittihad FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 76% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% versus Al-Ittihad FC 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Al-Ittihad FC 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.83 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.399 / defence 0.951 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.189 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.316. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.399 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 59 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad FC 3.23. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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