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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.

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Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to face Al Okhdood in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Al Okhdood (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Okhdood, 1 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 48% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 52% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.72 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.669 / defence 1.180 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.211 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.304. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.669 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.706 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Ahli Jeddah have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Al Okhdood games / 58 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 14% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 65%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 7.14 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% BTTS from recent games.

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