Al-Ettifaq 3-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Damac make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 5W 3D 2L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Damac have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Damac's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.00 for Damac. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ettifaq lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 38% versus Damac 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 41% | Damac 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.36 xG and Damac 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.023 / defence 0.877 | Damac attack 0.781 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.344. Data: 34 Al-Ettifaq games / 34 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 47% | Draw 28% | Damac 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Damac 4.00. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Damac 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 47% | Draw 28% | Damac 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.36 / Damac 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.023 / def 0.877 | Damac attack 0.781 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Damac xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Damac kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Al-Ettifaq 3 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Damac is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 47% chance of winning, Damac a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 1 | Damac 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Damac in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Damac (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.78x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.60
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.28
0.92
Damac xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
7%
15.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.92 for Damac, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 12W 8D 14L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Damac's form line: 9W 12D 13L from 34 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.15 for Damac. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.65 PPG from 17 outings (8W 4D 5L).
On the road, Damac have gone 4W 5D 8L from 17 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.12 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 12W 8D 14L in their last 34 games (1.29 PPG), while Damac have gone 9W 12D 13L in their last 34 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Damac away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.65 PPG; Damac away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Damac in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ettifaq have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 15 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 6, Damac have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 47%, Damac 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Ettifaq) and 47% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Damac in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 53% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 47% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Damac in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Damac 3-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.36 xG and Damac 0.92 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Damac attack 0.78 / defence 1.07, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 47% | Draw 28% | Damac 25%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 41%, Damac 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.29 PPG, Damac 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.