Rubin 0-1 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rubin vs FC Krasnodar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Krasnodar make the trip to Kazan' Arena to face Rubin in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Rubin's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rubin have posted 3W 2D 5L at Kazan' Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Rubin are significantly better at Kazan' Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC Krasnodar have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Krasnodar arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rubin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Krasnodar in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rubin lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with FC Krasnodar winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Krasnodar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rubin 68% and FC Krasnodar 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 64% | FC Krasnodar 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 1.25 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 1.044 / defence 1.426 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.022 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.037 / away 1.218. Data: 23 Rubin games / 22 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 26% | Draw 25% | FC Krasnodar 49%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | FC Krasnodar 2.04. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rubin 70% | FC Krasnodar 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Kazan' Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 26% | Draw 25% | FC Krasnodar 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Rubin 1.25 / FC Krasnodar 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 1.044 / def 1.426 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.022 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.037 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.77
FC Krasnodar xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Rubin vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Kazan' Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs FC Krasnodar?
Rubin 0 - 1 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Rubin vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Kazan' Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Rubin vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 26% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rubin and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and FC Krasnodar?
Record (1 meetings): Rubin 0W | Draws 0 | FC Krasnodar 1W.
What form are Rubin and FC Krasnodar in?
Rubin (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rubin's attack at 1.04x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.02x) against Rubin's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
26%
3.86
25%
3.96
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Rubin xG
Total xG
3.02
1.77
FC Krasnodar xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
17%
5.90
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
4%
22.76
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Rubin and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Rubin and 1.77 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rubin's recent record stands at 6W 4D 12L from 22 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 6L across 22 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Krasnodar by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rubin heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rubin have managed 3W 2D 5L from 10 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Krasnodar's away record stands at 4W 4D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rubin are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rubin have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 6W 4D 12L in their last 22 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 10W 6D 6L in their last 22 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.10 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rubin have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Rubin
2
Draws
6
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and FC Krasnodar?
From 9 meetings on record, Rubin have won 1, FC Krasnodar have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Rubin 1-3 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Rubin, 70% for FC Krasnodar — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Rubin and 50% for FC Krasnodar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play FC Krasnodar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Rubin's games and 70% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rubin vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Rubin's matches and 50% of FC Krasnodar's.
Do Rubin and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out Rubin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Rubin 0-1 at Kazan' Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.25 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.77 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rubin fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 1.04 / defence 1.43 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.02 / defence 1.15, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 26% | Draw 25% | FC Krasnodar 49%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 64%, FC Krasnodar 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Rubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.