FC Rostov 1-1 Baltika – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 38%, yet in-form Baltika provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Rostov vs Baltika fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Rostov host Baltika at Rostov Arena in Premier League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Rostov have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, FC Rostov have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Baltika — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Baltika's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Baltika — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, FC Rostov have won 1, Baltika 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended FC Rostov 0–0 Baltika — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Rostov in-play and half-time data (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Baltika in-play and half-time data (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 42% of FC Rostov's games and 26% of Baltika's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Rostov 26% | Baltika 16%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 0.99 xG and Baltika 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 0.860 / defence 1.040 | Baltika attack 0.826 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 0.981. Baltika bring a tight defence (rating 0.793, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC Rostov's projected output down. Data: built from FC Rostov's last 49 games and Baltika's last 19.
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 38% | Draw 32% | Baltika 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 2.65 | Draw 3.09 | Baltika 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Rostov as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Baltika (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Rostov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 72% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Rostov's last 10 home games and Baltika's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Rostov 40% (last 10 home games) | Baltika 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, matchday 20 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 38% | Draw 32% | Baltika 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG FC Rostov 0.99 / Baltika 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 0.860 / def 1.040 | Baltika attack 0.826 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.453 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Baltika xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Rostov vs Baltika FAQs
What time does FC Rostov vs Baltika kick off?
FC Rostov vs Baltika kicked off at 13:45 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs Baltika?
FC Rostov 1 - 1 Baltika.
Where is FC Rostov vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs Baltika part of?
FC Rostov vs Baltika is a Premier League fixture (matchday 20) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 38% chance of winning, Baltika a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both FC Rostov and Baltika will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will FC Rostov vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Rostov's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Baltika's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus FC Rostov's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Rostov's last 49 games and Baltika's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
38%
2.65
32%
3.09
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
1.83
0.84
Baltika xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 13.5 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Rostov vs Baltika Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for FC Rostov and 0.84 for Baltika, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Baltika?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, FC Rostov have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 5W 6D 8L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Baltika's form line: 9W 8D 2L from 19 games, 1.84 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Baltika are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Rostov.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Rostov have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 9 home games (3W 3D 3L).
On the road, Baltika have gone 4W 3D 2L from their last 9 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Rostov are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 1.26 scored and 0.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baltika in 26%.
Defensively: FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Baltika in 63% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Blended
Baltika
Blended
FC Rostov (Home) vs Baltika (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Rostov
Blended
Baltika
Blended
❓ FC Rostov vs Baltika Form FAQs
What form are FC Rostov and Baltika in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Baltika have gone 9W 8D 2L in their last 19 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or Baltika away?
Baltika's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 1.33 PPG; Baltika away: 1.67 PPG.
Have FC Rostov or Baltika been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Baltika in 63%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
FC Rostov's record when hosting Baltika specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
FC Rostov
4
Draws
0
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Rostov vs Baltika H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Baltika?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Rostov have won 1, Baltika have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and Baltika last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Baltika 0-0 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and Baltika?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Rostov see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Baltika see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — FC Rostov 44% BTTS, Baltika 11%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for FC Rostov and 22% for Baltika.
On the defensive side: FC Rostov keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Baltika in 67%; Baltika in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Rostov vs Baltika Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Rostov and Baltika matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 11% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Rostov and Baltika matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of FC Rostov's recent games and 22% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
FC Rostov and Baltika share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov and Baltika finished level at 1-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 0.99 xG and Baltika 0.84 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.86 / defence 1.04 against Baltika attack 0.83 / defence 0.79, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 38% | Draw 32% | Baltika 30%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 21% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 26%, Baltika 16%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Baltika's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.