Zenit 1-0 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zenit face Baltika.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zenit and Baltika meet at Gazprom Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 February 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Zenit's overall Premier League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit at Gazprom Arena this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gazprom Arena.
Baltika (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika away from home this season: 4W 4D 1L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 9 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Zenit's 2.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Baltika's 1.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Zenit 2W, Baltika 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Zenit half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Baltika half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 44% versus Baltika 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zenit 39% | Baltika 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.43 xG and Baltika 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.239 / defence 0.816 | Baltika attack 0.900 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.027. Data: 48 Zenit games / 18 Baltika games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 52% | Draw 29% | Baltika 19%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Baltika 5.26. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zenit at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zenit if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Zenit 40% | Baltika 22% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Gazprom Arena • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 52% | Draw 29% | Baltika 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Zenit 1.43 / Baltika 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.239 / def 0.816 | Baltika attack 0.900 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Zenit (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Baltika xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs Baltika kick off?
Zenit vs Baltika kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Gazprom Arena.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Baltika?
Zenit 1 - 0 Baltika.
Where is Zenit vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Gazprom Arena.
What competition is Zenit vs Baltika part of?
Zenit vs Baltika is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 52% chance of winning, Baltika a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Zenit and Baltika will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Baltika?
Record (3 meetings): Zenit 2W | Draws 1 | Baltika 0W.
What form are Zenit and Baltika in?
Zenit (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Baltika (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.24) and Baltika's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baltika's attack (0.90x) against Zenit's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.45
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.18
0.75
Baltika xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
5%
22.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.2 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Zenit and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Zenit and 0.75 for Baltika, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Baltika?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Zenit have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 11W 6D 1L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baltika's form line: 9W 8D 1L from 18 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.17 PPG for Zenit against 1.94 for Baltika. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Zenit have posted 2.78 PPG from 9 outings (8W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.17 PPG overall — Zenit are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Baltika have gone 4W 4D 1L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zenit are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 1.33 scored and 0.39 conceded. Zenit's scoring rate against Baltika's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Baltika in 28%.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Baltika in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
Baltika
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and Baltika in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 11W 6D 1L in their last 18 games (2.17 PPG), while Baltika have gone 9W 8D 1L in their last 18 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Baltika away?
Zenit's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.78 PPG; Baltika away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Zenit or Baltika been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Baltika in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zenit have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Baltika — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Zenit
1
Draws
0
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Baltika?
From 4 meetings on record, Zenit have won 3, Baltika have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and Baltika last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Zenit 1-0 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Baltika?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Baltika see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 44% (Zenit) and 22% (Baltika) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Zenit and 22% for Baltika.
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Baltika in 67%; Baltika in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play Baltika?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Zenit's recent matches and 22% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zenit vs Baltika usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Zenit's recent games and 22% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zenit and Baltika tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Baltika in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out Baltika 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Baltika 1-0 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.43 xG and Baltika 0.75 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.24 / defence 0.82 against Baltika attack 0.90 / defence 0.84, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 52% | Draw 29% | Baltika 19%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 39%, Baltika 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baltika's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zenit 2.17 PPG, Baltika 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zenit win broke the near-deadlock. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.