Krylia Sovetov 2-0 Dinamo Makhachkala – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dinamo Makhachkala make the trip to Samara Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Samara Arena, Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Samara Arena than their overall form suggests.
Dinamo Makhachkala (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Krylia Sovetov, 0.90 for Dinamo Makhachkala — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Dinamo Makhachkala hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Dinamo Makhachkala winning.
It is worth noting that Dinamo Makhachkala have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Dinamo Makhachkala — key trading statistics (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 53% versus Dinamo Makhachkala 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Krylia Sovetov 47% | Dinamo Makhachkala 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.52 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.997 / defence 1.088 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.762 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 0.983. Data: 49 Krylia Sovetov games / 49 Dinamo Makhachkala games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 54% | Draw 27% | Dinamo Makhachkala 20%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Dinamo Makhachkala 5.00. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Dinamo Makhachkala 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 54% | Draw 27% | Dinamo Makhachkala 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.52 / Dinamo Makhachkala 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.997 / def 1.088 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.762 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.476 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Krylia Sovetov 2 - 0 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 54% chance of winning, Dinamo Makhachkala a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Record (3 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 0 | Dinamo Makhachkala 3W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.00x the league average against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dinamo Makhachkala's attack (0.76x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
54%
1.87
27%
3.72
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.34
0.81
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
4%
23.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.81 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 49 games, going 12W 12D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dinamo Makhachkala sit at 0.96 PPG from 49 outings (10W 17D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dinamo Makhachkala is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 0.96 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 8W 5D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Dinamo Makhachkala have taken 0.61 points per game from 23 outings (2W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Dinamo Makhachkala are on 0.76 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 12W 12D 25L in their last 49 games (0.98 PPG), while Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 10W 17D 22L in their last 49 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Dinamo Makhachkala away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.26 PPG; Dinamo Makhachkala away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dinamo Makhachkala won 4-0 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
4
Dinamo Makhachkala
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala?
From 5 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 1-4 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Dinamo Makhachkala have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 52%, Dinamo Makhachkala 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Krylia Sovetov and 26% for Dinamo Makhachkala.
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 26% of games; Dinamo Makhachkala in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Dinamo Makhachkala away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 30% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 26% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Dinamo Makhachkala in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dinamo Makhachkala.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Dinamo Makhachkala 2-0 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.52 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.81 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dinamo Makhachkala landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.76 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 54% | Draw 27% | Dinamo Makhachkala 20%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 47%, Dinamo Makhachkala 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 0.98 PPG, Dinamo Makhachkala 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.