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Poisson model rates Baltika at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baltika vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Baltika host CSKA Moscow at Rostec Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Baltika have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Baltika at Rostec Arena this season: 5W 4D 0L from 9 home games — 2.11 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rostec Arena.

Looking at all fixtures this season, CSKA Moscow stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.

CSKA Moscow's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Baltika at 1.90 PPG versus CSKA Moscow's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Baltika, 2 for CSKA Moscow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with CSKA Moscow winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Baltika in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.

CSKA Moscow in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 30% versus CSKA Moscow 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 15% | CSKA Moscow 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.18 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.849 / defence 0.894 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.904 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.050. Data: 20 Baltika games / 50 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Baltika 44% | Draw 30% | CSKA Moscow 26%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | CSKA Moscow 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Baltika are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baltika offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baltika 33% | CSKA Moscow 40% BTTS from recent games.

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