Dynamo 4-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dynamo host Krylia Sovetov at VTB Arena in Premier League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 18 May 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dynamo stand at 7W 0D 3L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Dynamo at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Krylia Sovetov have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Dynamo are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Dynamo have won 2, Krylia Sovetov 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended Dynamo 3–3 Krylia Sovetov — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dynamo in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dynamo 64% and Krylia Sovetov 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo 62% | Krylia Sovetov 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo 1.69 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo attack 1.137 / defence 1.063 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.927 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.225. Data: built from Dynamo's last 58 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 58.
Result probabilities: Dynamo 49% | Draw 24% | Krylia Sovetov 27%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo 2.06 | Draw 4.16 | Krylia Sovetov 3.65. Dynamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dynamo 50% (last 10 home games) | Krylia Sovetov 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 29 | Venue: VTB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo 49% | Draw 24% | Krylia Sovetov 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Dynamo 1.69 / Krylia Sovetov 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo attack 1.137 / def 1.063 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.927 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Dynamo xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Krylia Sovetov xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov FAQs
What time does Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 18 May 2024 at VTB Arena.
What was the final score in Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov?
Dynamo 4 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at VTB Arena.
What competition is Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 29) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo a 49% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dynamo's attack at 1.14x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Dynamo's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dynamo's last 58 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
49%
2.06
24%
4.16
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Dynamo xG
Total xG
2.89
1.21
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
5%
19.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Dynamo and 1.21 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Dynamo have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 28W 14D 16L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Krylia Sovetov's form line: 19W 15D 24L from 58 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Dynamo are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Krylia Sovetov.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dynamo have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 29 home games (17W 4D 8L).
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 8W 4D 17L from their last 29 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dynamo are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.31 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo
Current Season
Krylia Sovetov
Current Season
Dynamo (Home) vs Krylia Sovetov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dynamo
Current Season
Krylia Sovetov
Current Season
❓ Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov Form FAQs
What form are Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Dynamo have gone 28W 14D 16L in their last 58 games (1.69 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 19W 15D 24L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Dynamo's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo at home: 1.90 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Mar 2026, when Dynamo won Dynamo 4-0 Krylia Sovetov.
Dynamo's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Dynamo
2
Draws
1
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dynamo have won 7, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: Dynamo 0-0 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo 52%, Krylia Sovetov 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Dynamo and 69% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dynamo keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Dynamo's games and 66% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Dynamo's matches and 69% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Dynamo's recent matches and 69% of Krylia Sovetov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat Krylia Sovetov 4-1 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 1.69 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.21 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Dynamo beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.14 / defence 1.06 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo 49% | Draw 24% | Krylia Sovetov 27%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 62%, Krylia Sovetov 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Dynamo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.