FC Sochi 2-3 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sochi at 48%, yet the head-to-head data favours FC Krasnodar — this FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sochi host FC Krasnodar at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Premier League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 18 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Sochi have gone 2W 6D 2L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Sochi's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Krasnodar stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Krasnodar away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (FC Sochi) versus 1.20 (FC Krasnodar). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, FC Krasnodar have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for FC Sochi.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2023, ended FC Sochi 0–2 FC Krasnodar — a FC Krasnodar win.
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
FC Sochi in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
FC Krasnodar in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sochi 45% versus FC Krasnodar 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sochi 57% | FC Krasnodar 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sochi 1.64 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sochi attack 1.223 / defence 1.017 | FC Krasnodar attack 0.948 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.211. Data: built from FC Sochi's last 58 games and FC Krasnodar's last 58.
Result probabilities: FC Sochi 48% | Draw 24% | FC Krasnodar 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Sochi 2.07 | Draw 4.09 | FC Krasnodar 3.68. FC Sochi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Sochi are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sochi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Sochi's last 10 home games and FC Krasnodar's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Sochi 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Krasnodar 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, matchday 29 | Venue: Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sochi 48% | Draw 24% | FC Krasnodar 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG FC Sochi 1.64 / FC Krasnodar 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sochi attack 1.223 / def 1.017 | FC Krasnodar attack 0.948 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: FC Sochi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
FC Sochi xG
Expected Goals
1.17
FC Krasnodar xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar FAQs
What time does FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What was the final score in FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar?
FC Sochi 2 - 3 FC Krasnodar.
Where is FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What competition is FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar part of?
FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar is a Premier League fixture (matchday 29) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives FC Sochi a 48% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Sochi the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sochi's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against FC Krasnodar's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, FC Krasnodar's attack versus FC Sochi's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Sochi's last 58 games and FC Krasnodar's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sochi Win
48%
2.07
24%
4.09
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
FC Sochi xG
Total xG
2.80
1.17
FC Krasnodar xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
5%
18.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for FC Sochi and 1.17 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, FC Sochi have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 16W 13D 29L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
FC Krasnodar's form line: 27W 17D 14L from 58 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, FC Krasnodar are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Sochi.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Sochi have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 29 home games (12W 9D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — FC Sochi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 9W 11D 9L from their last 29 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC Sochi are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.78 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Krasnodar in 60%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sochi
Current Season
FC Krasnodar
Current Season
FC Sochi (Home) vs FC Krasnodar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Sochi
Current Season
FC Krasnodar
Current Season
❓ FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar Form FAQs
What form are FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
FC Sochi have gone 16W 13D 29L in their last 58 games (1.05 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 27W 17D 14L in their last 58 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sochi at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Sochi's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sochi at home: 1.55 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.31 PPG.
Have FC Sochi or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sochi have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Krasnodar have won the most recent 8 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Aug 2025, when FC Krasnodar won FC Krasnodar 5-1 FC Sochi.
FC Sochi's record when hosting FC Krasnodar specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
FC Sochi
0
Draws
8
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Sochi have won 0, FC Krasnodar have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: FC Sochi 1-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sochi 55%, FC Krasnodar 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Sochi) and 55% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sochi home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of FC Sochi's games and 62% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FC Sochi's recent games and 55% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of FC Sochi's recent matches and 76% of FC Krasnodar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Krasnodar defy the odds to beat FC Sochi 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat FC Sochi 2-3 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.64 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.17 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Krasnodar outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 1.22 / defence 1.02 against FC Krasnodar attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 48% | Draw 24% | FC Krasnodar 27%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual FC Krasnodar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 57%, FC Krasnodar 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sochi's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. FC Sochi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.