Baltika 2-3 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs Dynamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Baltika and Dynamo meet at Rostec Arena in Premier League (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Baltika have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Baltika's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dynamo's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Dynamo's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Dynamo are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Dynamo edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Baltika 0–2 Dynamo — a Dynamo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Baltika goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Dynamo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 41% versus Dynamo 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 41% | Dynamo 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.32 xG and Dynamo 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.974 / defence 0.927 | Dynamo attack 1.322 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.208. Dynamo have an above-average attack rating of 1.322, which lifts their away xG to 1.48. Data: built from Baltika's last 27 games and Dynamo's last 57.
Result probabilities: Baltika 34% | Draw 25% | Dynamo 41%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 2.96 | Draw 3.97 | Dynamo 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baltika 30% (last 10 home games) | Dynamo 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 34% | Draw 25% | Dynamo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Baltika 1.32 / Dynamo 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.974 / def 0.927 | Dynamo attack 1.322 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Dynamo xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baltika vs Dynamo FAQs
What time does Baltika vs Dynamo kick off?
Baltika vs Dynamo kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Dynamo?
Baltika 2 - 3 Dynamo.
Where is Baltika vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Dynamo part of?
Baltika vs Dynamo is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 34% chance of winning, Dynamo a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Baltika and Dynamo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baltika vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Baltika's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Dynamo's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Dynamo's attack (1.32x) against Baltika's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from Baltika's last 27 games and Dynamo's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
34%
2.96
25%
3.97
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.80
1.48
Dynamo xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
8%
12.99
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baltika vs Dynamo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Baltika and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Baltika and 1.48 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Baltika have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 7W 5D 15L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Dynamo's form line: 14W 8D 5L from 27 games, 1.85 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Dynamo are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baltika.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Baltika have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 13 home games (6W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Baltika are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Dynamo have gone 5W 6D 2L from their last 13 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Baltika are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.70 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo in 70%.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
Baltika (Home) vs Dynamo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baltika
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
❓ Baltika vs Dynamo Form FAQs
What form are Baltika and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 7W 5D 15L in their last 27 games (0.96 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 14W 8D 5L in their last 27 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Dynamo away?
Baltika's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.62 PPG; Dynamo away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baltika have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dynamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Baltika
1
Draws
3
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Baltika vs Dynamo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Dynamo?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Baltika have won 1, Dynamo have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Baltika and Dynamo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Baltika 2-1 Dynamo.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 38%, Dynamo 85% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Baltika) and 69% (Dynamo).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Baltika have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baltika vs Dynamo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baltika and Dynamo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Baltika's games and 85% of Dynamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Baltika and Dynamo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Baltika's recent games and 69% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Dynamo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Baltika's recent matches and 85% of Dynamo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo edge out Baltika 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat Baltika 2-3 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.32 xG and Dynamo 1.48 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Dynamo outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Dynamo attack 1.32 / defence 1.01, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 34% | Draw 25% | Dynamo 41%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 41%, Dynamo 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Dynamo's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baltika (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.