FC Krasnodar 1-0 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dynamo at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Dynamo travel to Stadion FK Krasnodar to take on FC Krasnodar in Premier League (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Krasnodar stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Krasnodar at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FC Krasnodar are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Dynamo have recorded 7W 0D 3L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Dynamo have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Dynamo's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of FC Krasnodar's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of FC Krasnodar's games and 80% of Dynamo's (from FC Krasnodar's last 10 home games and Dynamo's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, FC Krasnodar have won 2, Dynamo 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Jul 2023, ended FC Krasnodar 3–1 Dynamo — a FC Krasnodar win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Krasnodar in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Dynamo in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Krasnodar 61% and Dynamo 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 56% | Dynamo 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Krasnodar surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Dynamo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Dynamo surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while FC Krasnodar recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.54 xG and Dynamo 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.026 / defence 0.908 | Dynamo attack 1.321 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.328. Dynamo have an above-average attack rating of 1.321, which lifts their away xG to 1.59. Data: built from FC Krasnodar's last 59 games and Dynamo's last 59.
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 37% | Draw 24% | Dynamo 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 2.70 | Draw 4.22 | Dynamo 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.54 / 1.59) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Krasnodar's last 10 home games and Dynamo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Krasnodar 60% (last 10 home games) | Dynamo 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 37% | Draw 24% | Dynamo 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG FC Krasnodar 1.54 / Dynamo 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.026 / def 0.908 | Dynamo attack 1.321 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Dynamo xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo FAQs
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo?
FC Krasnodar 1 - 0 Dynamo.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo is a Premier League fixture (matchday 30) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 37% chance of winning, Dynamo a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Dynamo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Krasnodar's attack at 1.03x the league average against Dynamo's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus FC Krasnodar's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Krasnodar's last 59 games and Dynamo's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
37%
2.70
24%
4.22
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
3.13
1.59
Dynamo xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
8%
13.29
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.59 for Dynamo, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Krasnodar's recent record stands at 28W 17D 14L from 59 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Dynamo, meanwhile, have gone 29W 14D 16L across 59 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Krasnodar on 1.71 PPG, Dynamo on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Krasnodar have managed 18W 6D 5L from their last 29 home games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dynamo's away record stands at 11W 10D 8L across their last 29 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.73 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Krasnodar have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Dynamo in 64%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Current Season
Dynamo
Current Season
FC Krasnodar (Home) vs Dynamo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Krasnodar
Current Season
Dynamo
Current Season
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo Form FAQs
What form are FC Krasnodar and Dynamo in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 28W 17D 14L in their last 59 games (1.71 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 29W 14D 16L in their last 59 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Dynamo away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.07 PPG; Dynamo away: 1.48 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Dynamo in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 11 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 May 2025, when FC Krasnodar won FC Krasnodar 3-0 Dynamo.
FC Krasnodar's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Krasnodar
1
Draws
3
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Dynamo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Krasnodar have won 6, Dynamo have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Dynamo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2026: Dynamo 2-1 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Dynamo?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Krasnodar at 59%, Dynamo at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for FC Krasnodar and 72% for Dynamo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Krasnodar and Dynamo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FC Krasnodar's games and 76% of Dynamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Krasnodar and Dynamo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of FC Krasnodar's matches and 72% of Dynamo's.
Do FC Krasnodar and Dynamo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 83% of Dynamo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Krasnodar defy the odds to beat Dynamo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Dynamo 1-0 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.54 xG and Dynamo 1.59 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dynamo landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.03 / defence 0.91 against Dynamo attack 1.32 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 37% | Draw 24% | Dynamo 39%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual FC Krasnodar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 56%, Dynamo 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dynamo's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 1.71 PPG, Dynamo 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Krasnodar win broke the near-deadlock. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dynamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.