FC Rostov 2-1 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Rostov vs Baltika fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Rostov host Baltika at Rostov Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Rostov have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Rostov have posted 6W 3D 1L at Rostov Arena — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baltika — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Baltika's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, FC Rostov have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Rostov have won 0, Baltika 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Rostov in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Baltika in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Rostov 57% versus Baltika 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 61% | Baltika 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.85 xG and Baltika 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 1.118 / defence 1.237 | Baltika attack 1.109 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.255. Data: 58 FC Rostov games / 28 Baltika games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 42% | Draw 22% | Baltika 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 2.38 | Draw 4.55 | Baltika 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Rostov as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Rostov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Rostov 60% | Baltika 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 42% | Draw 22% | Baltika 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG FC Rostov 1.85 / Baltika 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 1.118 / def 1.237 | Baltika attack 1.109 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Baltika xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Rostov vs Baltika kick off?
FC Rostov vs Baltika kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs Baltika?
FC Rostov 2 - 1 Baltika.
Where is FC Rostov vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs Baltika part of?
FC Rostov vs Baltika is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 42% chance of winning, Baltika a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC Rostov and Baltika will score (BTTS).
Will FC Rostov vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Baltika?
Record (1 meetings): FC Rostov 0W | Draws 1 | Baltika 0W.
What form are FC Rostov and Baltika in?
FC Rostov (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Baltika (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Rostov's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Baltika's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus FC Rostov's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
42%
2.41
22%
4.55
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
3.57
1.72
Baltika xG
2.41
42%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
7%
13.46
6%
17.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for FC Rostov and 1.72 for Baltika, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Baltika?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, FC Rostov have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 11W 7D 10L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Baltika's form line: 7W 5D 16L from 28 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, FC Rostov are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baltika.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Rostov have posted 2.00 PPG from 14 outings (8W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — FC Rostov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Baltika have gone 1W 2D 11L from 14 away games — 0.36 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Baltika's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Rostov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Rostov are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 1.11 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Current Season
Baltika
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Rostov and Baltika in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 11W 7D 10L in their last 28 games (1.43 PPG), while Baltika have gone 7W 5D 16L in their last 28 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or Baltika away?
FC Rostov's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 2.00 PPG; Baltika away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
FC Rostov's record when hosting Baltika specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC Rostov
3
Draws
0
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Baltika?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Rostov have won 1, Baltika have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and Baltika last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when FC Rostov 1-1 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and Baltika?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Baltika see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Rostov 64%, Baltika 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (FC Rostov) and 43% (Baltika). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Rostov keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Baltika in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Rostov play Baltika?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 43% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Rostov vs Baltika usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC Rostov's matches and 43% of Baltika's.
Do FC Rostov and Baltika tend to score early?
FC Rostov have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Baltika in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Rostov edge out Baltika 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Baltika 2-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.85 xG and Baltika 1.72 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.12 / defence 1.24 against Baltika attack 1.11 / defence 1.14, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 42% | Draw 22% | Baltika 36%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 61%, Baltika 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Baltika's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Rostov arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.