Tondela 1-1 Alverca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tondela at 43%, yet in-form Alverca provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tondela vs Alverca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tondela and Alverca meet at Estádio João Cardoso in Primeira Liga (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 February 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Tondela's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Tondela's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Alverca (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Alverca have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Alverca are 0.50 PPG clear of Tondela over their recent games (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Alverca edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 12 Sep 2025, ended Tondela 0–1 Alverca — a Alverca win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Tondela half-time and goal-timing data (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 30% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Alverca half-time and goal-timing data (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tondela 33% versus Alverca 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tondela 57% | Alverca 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tondela 1.25 xG and Alverca 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tondela attack 0.629 / defence 0.976 | Alverca attack 0.772 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.248. Tondela's attack rating of 0.629 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Alverca's defence rating of 1.293 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tondela's projected output up. Alverca's attack rating of 0.772 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Tondela's last 21 games and Alverca's last 21.
Result probabilities: Tondela 43% | Draw 29% | Alverca 28%. Fair-value odds: Tondela 2.30 | Draw 3.48 | Alverca 3.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tondela as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alverca (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tondela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tondela 30% (last 10 home games) | Alverca 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tondela vs Alverca | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Estádio João Cardoso • Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tondela 43% | Draw 29% | Alverca 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Tondela 1.25 / Alverca 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Tondela attack 0.629 / def 0.976 | Alverca attack 0.772 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Tondela (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Tondela xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Alverca xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tondela vs Alverca FAQs
What time does Tondela vs Alverca kick off?
Tondela vs Alverca kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 13 February 2026 at Estádio João Cardoso.
What was the final score in Tondela vs Alverca?
Tondela 1 - 1 Alverca.
Where is Tondela vs Alverca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio João Cardoso.
What competition is Tondela vs Alverca part of?
Tondela vs Alverca is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Tondela vs Alverca?
Our statistical model gives Tondela a 43% chance of winning, Alverca a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Tondela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tondela vs Alverca?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Tondela and Alverca will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Tondela vs Alverca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Tondela's attack rating (0.63) and Alverca's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Alverca's attack (0.77x) against Tondela's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Tondela's last 21 games and Alverca's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tondela Win
43%
2.30
29%
3.48
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Tondela xG
Total xG
2.19
0.94
Alverca xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
8%
12.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tondela vs Alverca Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tondela vs Alverca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Tondela and Alverca expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Tondela and 0.94 for Alverca, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Tondela vs Alverca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Tondela have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 3W 5D 13L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Alverca's form line: 7W 3D 11L from 21 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Alverca are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tondela.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Tondela have posted 0.60 PPG from their last 10 home games (1W 3D 6L).
On the road, Alverca have gone 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alverca's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tondela are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Alverca are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tondela
Blended
Alverca
Blended
Tondela (Home) vs Alverca (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tondela
Blended
Alverca
Blended
❓ Tondela vs Alverca Form FAQs
What form are Tondela and Alverca in coming into this match?
Tondela have gone 3W 5D 13L in their last 21 games (0.67 PPG), while Alverca have gone 7W 3D 11L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tondela at home or Alverca away?
Alverca's away record (0.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tondela at home: 0.60 PPG; Alverca away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Tondela
1
Draws
1
Alverca
Recent Meetings
❓ Tondela vs Alverca H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Alverca?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Tondela have won 0, Alverca have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Tondela and Alverca last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Tondela 1-1 Alverca.
Who has won more matches between Tondela and Alverca?
Alverca have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tondela's games tend to start slowly — only 30% have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Alverca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tondela 30%, Alverca 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Tondela) and 70% (Alverca). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tondela have failed to score in 70% of games; Alverca in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tondela home games / Alverca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tondela vs Alverca Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tondela and Alverca matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Tondela's recent matches and 60% of Alverca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Tondela and Alverca matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Tondela's matches and 70% of Alverca's.
Do Tondela and Alverca matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 30% of Tondela's recent matches and 70% of Alverca's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tondela and Alverca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tondela and Alverca finished level at 1-1 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 1.25 xG and Alverca 0.94 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.63 / defence 0.98 against Alverca attack 0.77 / defence 1.29, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tondela 43% | Draw 29% | Alverca 28%, with Tondela to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 57%, Alverca 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tondela's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Alverca's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Alverca arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alverca (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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