Sporting CP 1-0 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sporting CP at 45%, yet in-form Benfica provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sporting CP vs Benfica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sporting CP host Benfica at Estádio José Alvalade in Primeira Liga (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 29 December 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Sporting CP — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Sporting CP have gone 9W 0D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Sporting CP are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Benfica stand at 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Benfica's 2.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sporting CP's 2.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Sporting CP have won 2, Benfica 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2024, ended Sporting CP 2–1 Benfica — a Sporting CP win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sporting CP trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Benfica trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 49% versus Benfica 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sporting CP 76% | Benfica 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 1.59 xG and Benfica 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.428 / defence 0.948 | Benfica attack 1.182 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.122. Sporting CP carry an above-average attack rating of 1.428 — their 1.59 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Sporting CP's last 49 games and Benfica's last 49.
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 45% | Draw 25% | Benfica 30%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 2.22 | Draw 4.03 | Benfica 3.33. Sporting CP hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Benfica (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sporting CP offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sporting CP's last 10 home games and Benfica's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sporting CP 30% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 16 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Sunday 29 December 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 45% | Draw 25% | Benfica 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Sporting CP 1.59 / Benfica 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.428 / def 0.948 | Benfica attack 1.182 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Benfica xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sporting CP vs Benfica FAQs
What time does Sporting CP vs Benfica kick off?
Sporting CP vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Sporting CP 1 - 0 Benfica.
Where is Sporting CP vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Benfica part of?
Sporting CP vs Benfica is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 16) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 45% chance of winning, Benfica a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sporting CP and Benfica will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sporting CP vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.43x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Sporting CP's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sporting CP's last 49 games and Benfica's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.03
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
2.85
1.26
Benfica xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
6%
16.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sporting CP vs Benfica Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sporting CP and 1.26 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sporting CP's recent record stands at 41W 4D 4L from 49 games, a 2.59 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 37W 7D 5L across 49 games — 2.41 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sporting CP on 2.59 PPG, Benfica on 2.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sporting CP have managed 23W 0D 1L from their last 24 home games — 2.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 14W 5D 5L across their last 24 away games, a 1.96 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sporting CP are averaging 2.84 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.33 scored and 0.73 conceded. Sporting CP's scoring rate against Benfica's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games; Benfica in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Blended
Benfica
Blended
Sporting CP (Home) vs Benfica (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sporting CP
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Sporting CP vs Benfica Form FAQs
What form are Sporting CP and Benfica in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 41W 4D 4L in their last 49 games (2.59 PPG), while Benfica have gone 37W 7D 5L in their last 49 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Benfica away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.88 PPG; Benfica away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Benfica in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sporting CP's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sporting CP
4
Draws
3
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Sporting CP vs Benfica H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Benfica?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sporting CP have won 3, Benfica have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Benfica last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Sporting CP 1-2 Benfica.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 46%, Benfica 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sporting CP and 50% for Benfica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Benfica in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sporting CP vs Benfica Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sporting CP and Benfica matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 50% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sporting CP and Benfica matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sporting CP's matches and 50% of Benfica's.
Do Sporting CP and Benfica matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 71% of Benfica's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Benfica 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Benfica 1-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.59 xG and Benfica 1.26 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Benfica landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.43 / defence 0.95 against Benfica attack 1.18 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 45% | Draw 25% | Benfica 30%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 76%, Benfica 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Benfica's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sporting CP 2.59 PPG, Benfica 2.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sporting CP win broke the near-deadlock. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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