🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Guimaraes at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Guimaraes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Farense host Guimaraes at Estádio de São Lúis in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 December 2024 at 15:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Farense — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Farense's home record at Estádio de São Lúis: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Guimaraes have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Guimaraes have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Farense at 1.20 PPG versus Guimaraes's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Farense have won 0, Guimaraes 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Farense in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Guimaraes in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 53% versus Guimaraes 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 49% | Guimaraes 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 0.83 xG and Guimaraes 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.687 / defence 1.091 | Guimaraes attack 0.968 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.108. Farense's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Farense games / 49 Guimaraes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Farense 26% | Draw 31% | Guimaraes 44%. Fair-value odds: Farense 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Guimaraes 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Guimaraes at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guimaraes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Farense 50% | Guimaraes 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights