Famalicao 1-2 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Santa Clara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Famalicao host Santa Clara at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 30 December 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Famalicao — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Famalicao have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara away from home this season: 3W 0D 4L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.29 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Santa Clara's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Famalicao's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Famalicao hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Santa Clara, with 1 draws in between.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 3–1 with Famalicao winning.
The historical record gives Famalicao a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Famalicao in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Santa Clara in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 53% versus Santa Clara 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Famalicao 47% | Santa Clara 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.01 xG and Santa Clara 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.746 / defence 0.968 | Santa Clara attack 0.787 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.109. Famalicao's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Famalicao games / 15 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 39% | Draw 32% | Santa Clara 29%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Santa Clara 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Famalicao dominate the H2H record, yet Santa Clara are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Santa Clara (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Famalicao offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 40% | Santa Clara 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Monday 30 Dec 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 39% | Draw 32% | Santa Clara 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Famalicao 1.01 / Santa Clara 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.746 / def 0.968 | Santa Clara attack 0.787 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Santa Clara xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Santa Clara kick off?
Famalicao vs Santa Clara kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 30 December 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Santa Clara?
Famalicao 1 - 2 Santa Clara.
Where is Famalicao vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Santa Clara part of?
Famalicao vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 39% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Famalicao and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Santa Clara?
Record (4 meetings): Famalicao 3W | Draws 1 | Santa Clara 0W.
What form are Famalicao and Santa Clara in?
Famalicao (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Santa Clara (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.75) and Santa Clara's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
39%
2.59
32%
3.12
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Famalicao xG
Total xG
1.86
0.84
Santa Clara xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.4 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.84 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Famalicao come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 7D 4L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (9W 0D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santa Clara carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Famalicao — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Famalicao's home form reads 1W 4D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Santa Clara have taken 1.29 points per game from 7 outings (3W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
The Goals Picture
Famalicao are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 1.07 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Santa Clara in 27%.
Defensively: Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Santa Clara in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 4W 7D 4L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 9W 0D 6L in their last 15 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Santa Clara away?
Santa Clara's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.00 PPG; Santa Clara away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Santa Clara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Santa Clara in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Famalicao and Santa Clara runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Famalicao won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Famalicao's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Famalicao
1
Draws
3
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Santa Clara?
From 9 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 5, Santa Clara have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Santa Clara 1-0 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Santa Clara?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Santa Clara see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 43%, Santa Clara 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Famalicao and 29% for Santa Clara.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 43% of games; Santa Clara in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Famalicao's recent matches and 29% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Famalicao's recent games and 29% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Santa Clara defy the odds to beat Famalicao 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Famalicao 1-2 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.01 xG and Santa Clara 0.84 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Santa Clara outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.75 / defence 0.97 against Santa Clara attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 39% | Draw 32% | Santa Clara 29%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Santa Clara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 47%, Santa Clara 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Santa Clara's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.