Arouca 1-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arouca at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arouca vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Arouca plays host to Arouca versus GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 27 December 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Form
Arouca (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arouca have posted 3W 2D 5L at Estádio Municipal de Arouca — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, GIL Vicente have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Arouca against 1.10 for GIL Vicente. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Arouca, who have won 3 of the last 6 meetings against GIL Vicente — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Arouca a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Arouca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 49% versus GIL Vicente 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 59% | GIL Vicente 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.43 xG and GIL Vicente 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.790 / defence 1.063 | GIL Vicente attack 0.879 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.107. Arouca's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. GIL Vicente bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Arouca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Arouca games / 49 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 46% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 27%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | GIL Vicente 3.70. Arouca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arouca as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arouca if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 40% | GIL Vicente 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Friday 27 Dec 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 46% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Arouca 1.43 / GIL Vicente 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.790 / def 1.063 | GIL Vicente attack 0.879 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Arouca (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.03
GIL Vicente xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Arouca vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 27 December 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Arouca 1 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Arouca vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs GIL Vicente part of?
Arouca vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 46% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Arouca and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and GIL Vicente?
Record (6 meetings): Arouca 3W | Draws 3 | GIL Vicente 0W.
What form are Arouca and GIL Vicente in?
Arouca (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arouca's attack at 0.79x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.88x) against Arouca's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.76
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.46
1.03
GIL Vicente xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
7%
15.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Arouca and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Arouca and 1.03 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arouca's recent record stands at 16W 9D 24L from 49 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 22L across 49 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Arouca against 1.08 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 9W 4D 11L from 24 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 4W 4D 16L across 24 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arouca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arouca are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.20 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 16W 9D 24L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 13W 14D 22L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or GIL Vicente away?
Arouca's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.29 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 3-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Arouca
6
Draws
0
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 4, GIL Vicente have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-3 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and GIL Vicente?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 42%, GIL Vicente 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Arouca) and 58% (GIL Vicente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arouca have failed to score in 42% of games; GIL Vicente in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Arouca's recent matches and 46% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Arouca's matches and 58% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Arouca and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arouca and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 16, as Arouca and GIL Vicente drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.43 xG and GIL Vicente 1.03 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.79 / defence 1.06 against GIL Vicente attack 0.88 / defence 1.33, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 46% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 27%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 59%, GIL Vicente 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arouca 1.16 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.