Benfica 1-2 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face SC Braga.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica plays host to Benfica versus SC Braga in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 4 January 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Benfica's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Benfica have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Benfica are significantly better at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica than their overall form suggests.
SC Braga have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Braga have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Benfica's 2.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SC Braga's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Benfica, 2 for SC Braga and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Benfica — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
SC Braga — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 44% versus SC Braga 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 58% | SC Braga 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.69 xG and SC Braga 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.658 / defence 0.663 | SC Braga attack 1.183 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.146. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.658 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SC Braga's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica's defence rating of 0.663 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Benfica games / 50 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 56% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 20%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | SC Braga 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 40% | SC Braga 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jan 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 56% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Benfica 1.69 / SC Braga 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.658 / def 0.663 | SC Braga attack 1.183 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Benfica (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.90
SC Braga xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs SC Braga kick off?
Benfica vs SC Braga kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs SC Braga?
Benfica 1 - 2 SC Braga.
Where is Benfica vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs SC Braga part of?
Benfica vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 56% chance of winning, SC Braga a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Benfica and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and SC Braga?
Record (6 meetings): Benfica 4W | Draws 0 | SC Braga 2W.
What form are Benfica and SC Braga in?
Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. SC Braga (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Benfica's attacking strength (1.66x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — SC Braga's attack (1.18x) against Benfica's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.10
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.59
0.90
SC Braga xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
4%
27.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Benfica and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Benfica and 0.90 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs SC Braga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benfica's recent record stands at 37W 7D 6L from 50 games, a 2.36 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga, meanwhile, have gone 29W 9D 12L across 50 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SC Braga heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Benfica have managed 22W 2D 0L from 24 games — 2.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.36 PPG overall — Benfica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Braga's away record stands at 16W 3D 5L across 24 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Benfica are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.98 scored and 1.36 conceded. SC Braga's attacking output running into Benfica's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SC Braga in 62%.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 37W 7D 6L in their last 50 games (2.36 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 29W 9D 12L in their last 50 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or SC Braga away?
Benfica's home record (2.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.83 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Benfica or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, SC Braga in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 6-1 on 7 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benfica have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Braga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Benfica
3
Draws
3
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and SC Braga?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 4, SC Braga have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Benfica 2-2 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and SC Braga?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 42%, SC Braga 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Benfica and 67% for SC Braga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; SC Braga in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Benfica's recent matches and 54% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Benfica's matches and 67% of SC Braga's.
Do Benfica and SC Braga tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Braga defy the odds to beat Benfica 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Benfica 1-2 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.69 xG and SC Braga 0.90 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Braga outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.66 / defence 0.66 against SC Braga attack 1.18 / defence 0.73, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 56% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 20%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a SC Braga win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 58%, SC Braga 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Braga's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.92. Form was overturned, with SC Braga winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.