Santa Clara 1-3 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santa Clara vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Famalicao travel to Estádio de São Miguel to take on Santa Clara. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 February 2023, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara at Estádio de São Miguel this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Famalicao have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Famalicao have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Santa Clara at 0.70 PPG versus Famalicao's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Santa Clara have won 0, Famalicao 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Famalicao winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Santa Clara trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Famalicao trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 52% versus Famalicao 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 52% | Famalicao 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.63 xG and Famalicao 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.907 / defence 1.426 | Famalicao attack 1.019 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 0.988. Famalicao bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Santa Clara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Santa Clara games / 54 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 42% | Draw 24% | Famalicao 34%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Famalicao 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santa Clara are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 70% | Famalicao 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 42% | Draw 24% | Famalicao 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Santa Clara 1.63 / Famalicao 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.907 / def 1.426 | Famalicao attack 1.019 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.360 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Famalicao xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Famalicao kick off?
Santa Clara vs Famalicao kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Santa Clara 1 - 3 Famalicao.
Where is Santa Clara vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Famalicao part of?
Santa Clara vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 42% chance of winning, Famalicao a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Santa Clara and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Famalicao?
Record (3 meetings): Santa Clara 0W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 2W.
What form are Santa Clara and Famalicao in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Famalicao (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Santa Clara's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Famalicao's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
42%
2.37
24%
4.18
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
3.06
1.44
Famalicao xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.44 for Famalicao, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara come into this having played 54 games, going 12W 19D 23L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.11 PPG from 54 outings (15W 15D 24L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santa Clara on 1.02 PPG, Famalicao on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Santa Clara's home form reads 10W 10D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 0.81 points per game from 27 outings (5W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.17 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 12W 19D 23L in their last 54 games (1.02 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 15W 15D 24L in their last 54 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Famalicao away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.48 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Famalicao have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Famalicao won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santa Clara's record when hosting Famalicao specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Santa Clara
1
Draws
5
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Famalicao?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 2, Famalicao have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Santa Clara 0-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 59%, Famalicao 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Santa Clara) and 52% (Famalicao). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Santa Clara have failed to score in 26% of games; Famalicao in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Famalicao?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Santa Clara's games and 52% of Famalicao's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Santa Clara vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Santa Clara's matches and 52% of Famalicao's.
Do Santa Clara and Famalicao tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Santa Clara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Santa Clara 1-3 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.63 xG and Famalicao 1.44 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Famalicao outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.91 / defence 1.43 against Famalicao attack 1.02 / defence 1.32, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 42% | Draw 24% | Famalicao 34%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Famalicao win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 52%, Famalicao 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Famalicao's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.02 PPG, Famalicao 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.