Maritimo 3-1 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Maritimo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Maritimo vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Maritimo host Santa Clara at Estádio dos Barreiros in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Maritimo have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio dos Barreiros, Maritimo have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Maritimo) versus 0.60 (Santa Clara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Maritimo have won 1, Santa Clara 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Santa Clara winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Maritimo in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Santa Clara in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 53% versus Santa Clara 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 46% | Santa Clara 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 0.89 xG and Santa Clara 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.739 / defence 1.017 | Santa Clara attack 0.675 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 0.989. Maritimo's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Maritimo games / 55 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 38% | Draw 35% | Santa Clara 26%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Santa Clara 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Santa Clara's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Maritimo at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Maritimo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 29% on No. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 50% | Santa Clara 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 38% | Draw 35% | Santa Clara 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 29% | xG Maritimo 0.89 / Santa Clara 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.739 / def 1.017 | Santa Clara attack 0.675 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.357 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Santa Clara xG
29%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Santa Clara kick off?
Maritimo vs Santa Clara kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Santa Clara?
Maritimo 3 - 1 Santa Clara.
Where is Maritimo vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Santa Clara part of?
Maritimo vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 38% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Maritimo and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Santa Clara?
Record (3 meetings): Maritimo 1W | Draws 1 | Santa Clara 1W.
What form are Maritimo and Santa Clara in?
Maritimo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Santa Clara (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Maritimo's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Santa Clara's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Maritimo's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
38%
2.61
35%
2.82
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Maritimo xG
Total xG
1.57
0.68
Santa Clara xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.44
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.8 | 14.1 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.4%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Maritimo and 0.68 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Maritimo come into this having played 55 games, going 12W 15D 28L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 1.00 PPG from 55 outings (12W 19D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Maritimo on 0.93 PPG, Santa Clara on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Maritimo's home form reads 6W 8D 13L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Santa Clara have taken 0.56 points per game from 27 outings (2W 9D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
The Goals Picture
Maritimo are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 0.96 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 12W 15D 28L in their last 55 games (0.93 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 12W 19D 24L in their last 55 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Santa Clara away?
Maritimo's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 0.96 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Maritimo and Santa Clara runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Maritimo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Maritimo's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Maritimo
1
Draws
1
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Santa Clara?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 2, Santa Clara have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Maritimo 3-1 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Santa Clara?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 44%, Santa Clara 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Maritimo) and 44% (Santa Clara).
On the defensive side: Maritimo have failed to score in 37% of games; Santa Clara in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Maritimo's recent matches and 44% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Maritimo's recent games and 44% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Maritimo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Santa Clara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo beat Santa Clara 3-1 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 0.89 xG and Santa Clara 0.68 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Maritimo beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.74 / defence 1.02 against Santa Clara attack 0.68 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 38% | Draw 35% | Santa Clara 26%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 46%, Santa Clara 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Santa Clara's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Maritimo 0.93 PPG, Santa Clara 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Maritimo win broke the near-deadlock. Maritimo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. Santa Clara (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.