Chaves 2-3 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sporting CP at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chaves vs Sporting CP encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chaves host Sporting CP at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 20 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chaves — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chaves at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Sporting CP have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sporting CP away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sporting CP — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chaves, 0 for Sporting CP and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Chaves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chaves in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sporting CP in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 50% versus Sporting CP 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 32% | Sporting CP 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 0.95 xG and Sporting CP 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.781 / defence 1.169 | Sporting CP attack 1.110 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 0.984. Chaves's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Chaves games / 54 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 28% | Draw 28% | Sporting CP 44%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Sporting CP 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sporting CP offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chaves 60% | Sporting CP 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Monday 20 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 28% | Draw 28% | Sporting CP 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Chaves 0.95 / Sporting CP 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.781 / def 1.169 | Sporting CP attack 1.110 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.341 / away 0.984 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Sporting CP xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Sporting CP kick off?
Chaves vs Sporting CP kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 20 February 2023 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Sporting CP?
Chaves 2 - 3 Sporting CP.
Where is Chaves vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Sporting CP part of?
Chaves vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 28% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Chaves and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Sporting CP?
Record (1 meetings): Chaves 1W | Draws 0 | Sporting CP 0W.
What form are Chaves and Sporting CP in?
Chaves (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Sporting CP (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chaves's attack at 0.78x the league average against Sporting CP's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sporting CP's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
28%
3.60
28%
3.52
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.23
1.28
Sporting CP xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
8%
12.91
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.7 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Chaves and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Chaves and 1.28 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chaves come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 8D 7L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sporting CP sit at 2.00 PPG from 22 outings (14W 2D 6L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Chaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chaves's home form reads 3W 5D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Sporting CP have taken 1.40 points per game from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sporting CP's season.
The Goals Picture
Chaves are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.14 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 14W 2D 6L in their last 22 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Sporting CP away?
Chaves's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.40 PPG; Sporting CP away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Chaves or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chaves and Sporting CP runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sporting CP go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jan 2024, when Sporting CP won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chaves's record when hosting Sporting CP specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
0
Draws
3
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Sporting CP?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 1, Sporting CP have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Sporting CP 3-0 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 60%, Sporting CP 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Chaves) and 60% (Sporting CP).
On the defensive side: Chaves have failed to score in 30% of games; Sporting CP in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Sporting CP?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Chaves's games and 50% of Sporting CP's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chaves vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Chaves's recent games and 60% of Sporting CP's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Chaves 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Chaves 2-3 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 0.95 xG and Sporting CP 1.28 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Chaves beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sporting CP outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.78 / defence 1.17 against Sporting CP attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 28% | Draw 28% | Sporting CP 44%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 32%, Sporting CP 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sporting CP's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.